Kramer Junction, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

609
FXUS65 KVEF 050227
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
727 PM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Another round of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will form over the mountains today across our forecast
area before gradually shifting into the valleys. Expect a reduction
in coverage and severity today compared to yesterday. Another round
expected on Thursday, with best chances pushing further north -
across the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin. Conditions dry
out and heat up for the end of the work week into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...

The most notable update this evening was the cancellation of the
Flash Flood Watch that was originally in effect through late
evening. Storm coverage this afternoon and evening has been sparse
compared to the last few days, and while rainfall rates with the
stronger cells have at times approached 1 inch per hour and
localized flooding may result, impactful widespread flash flooding
is not expected. Convection currently percolating across portions
of Inyo, San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave Counties is largely
expected to weaken after sunset with the loss of insolation and
increasing stabilization, though another round of storms is
progged to develop over the Southern Great Basin late tonight
through early Thursday morning ahead of more widespread convection
Thursday afternoon. Aside from minor changes to PoPs and Sky
grids to capture near term trends, the forecast remains on track
this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Thursday.

A cut off low will weaken into an open wave as it pushes through
Sonora today. In addition to this wave, a shortwave will push into
the southwestern Great Basin as it rides along our northwesterly
flow aloft. Both of these systems will team up with the anomalous
moisture over our forecast area (PWATs over 200 percent of normal)
and with the lift associated with daytime heating to return
scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm chances to the region
today. At present, we`re seeing convection start up on the Spring
Mountains of Clark County as well as Mt. Trumbull in the Arizona
Strip. This convection will then gradually meander into nearby
valleys through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. CAPE
values are greatest around southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona,
but are notably lower than yesterday - at about 500 J/kg. With PWATs
hovering around 1.00", we continue to see a prolonged flash flood
threat in these areas, which is noted by our Flash Flood Watch. The
current Flash Flood Watch is in effect for northeastern San
Bernardino County, Clark County, and Mohave County including the
Colorado River Valley and is in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening.
These are the same locations that the Weather Prediction Center has
highlighted with a "slight" Excessive Rainfall Outlook. That said,
the latest hi-resolution Convective Allowing Models continue to show
a much quieter day compared to yesterday (in both coverage and
severity), so it`s possible that we will be able to cancel the Flash
Flood Watch early.

In addition to an increased flash flood chances today, DCAPE over
southeastern California ranges between 1200 and 1500 J/kg - similar
as yesterday. As such, with some of the stronger storms, you can
expect gusty outflow winds between 50 and 60 mph in addition to
frequent lightning.

An elongated trough will gradually set up across the Desert
Southwest tonight into Thursday, which will allow additional
vorticity advection into the Mojave Desert. These dynamics will
again team up with anomalous moisture (PWATs 150-200 percent of
normal) and heating of the day to return scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area. Once again, convection will
start in the mountains before gradually shifting into the valleys,
with best chances of convection in southern Nevada.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.

After an unsettled week, a substantial warming and drying trend will
be underway on Friday. Persistent troughing that has allowed
multiple systems to impact the region will give way to ridging, with
both ensemble guidance and cluster analyses indicating a
strengthening ridge over the weekend and into early next week, with
at least some semblance of ridging lingering through at least
midweek. Increasing thicknesses and associated subsidence will
result in PWATs gradually returning to near and below-normal, with a
return to well-above normal temperatures. Fairly widespread highs in
the 90s and lower 100s are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with
Monday currently looking to be the hottest day of the forecast.
Along with the warming temperatures will be increasing HeatRisk,
with "Major" HeatRisk returning to Death Valley and the Lower
Colorado River Valley on Saturday, gradually expanding across other
lower elevations through early next week. As to be expected in this
pattern, aside from some lingering precipitation chances over far
northeastern Lincoln County Friday afternoon, dry conditions are
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Shower
and thunderstorm activity over the Clark County mountains will
continue to push into the valley this afternoon. Best chances of
thunderstorm activity over area terminals exists until 02Z this
afternoon (30-40%). With thunderstorm activity, expect moderate-to-
heavy rainfall, erratic, gusty winds from their direction, and CIGs
down to 8 kft. Without thunderstorm influence, winds will favor the
south-southeast between 6 and 8 kts this afternoon... becoming
southwesterly after sunset. Thursday afternoon, shower and
thunderstorm activity return, favoring the mountains early-afternoon
once again.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Shower and thunderstorm
activity over the mountains will gradually push into the valleys
this afternoon and evening. Best chances for precipitation at Las
Vegas Valley terminals as well as KBIH exist until 02Z. With
thunderstorm activity, expect moderate-to-heavy rainfall, erratic,
gusty winds from their direction, and CIGs down to 8 kft... down to
6 kft at KBIH. Without thunderstorm influence, expect breezy south
winds between 5 and 10 kts, with the exception of KDAG where gusty
west winds will pick up after sunset between 20 and 25 kts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Phillipson
SHORT TERM...Soulat
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Soulat

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